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Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers Projected to Improve on Their 9-38 Record with 19 Wins Next Season but Still Not in the East Playoff Picture


[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] With a 9-38 record, the Cavaliers are falling well short of their money line projected win total of 12 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 8 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 5-17 home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 50.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. Cavaliers fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #9 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Cavaliers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 28.7% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #6 in the league back on 6/26.

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SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.7% (#27 in League). The team has improved to 57% in their last 7 games. They average 102.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 103.6. On the road they average 102 (101.9 expected), and at home 103.7 ppg (105.5 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 59 true FG% (#30 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 62.7% in their last 7 games. They allow 113.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.9. They are allowing 114.2 (112.7 expected) on the road, and at home 113.5 ppg (110.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.6 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.9 per game (#21 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.1.

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The Cavaliers next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 3.4%. At #15 in the conference, they are behind the Bulls by 1.5 games. With a -0.94 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cavaliers are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cavaliers are playing 6 games, traveling 1720 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

The Cleveland Cavaliers’ next game is on January 21. Visit to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.


Before the season, the Cavaliers were projected to win 49.8 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 50.9 before dropping to 15.8 on 11/22. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 18.9 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #8 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 54% #5 Toughest

Cavaliers’ Season Forecast Changes

Date Projected Wins Playoff% East Champ NBA Champ
Jan 20 18.9 0% 0% 0%
Nov 22 15.8 0% 0% 0%
Difference +3.1


Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season Leaders FP Per Game Own % and Value
Tristan Thompson 19.8 90% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #20)
Kevin Love 27.9 98% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #28)
Ante Zizic 10.2 7% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #45)
Collin Sexton 21.9 79% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #49)
Larry Nance 18.9 73% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #52)
John Henson 10 4% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #50)

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